The Myth of Water Wars
By James R. Davis and Rafik Hirji
The economies of many poor states depend heavily upon
water, in particular for livestock, agriculture, energy, industry,
mining, fishing, navigation, and tourism. Yet access to water is
increasingly problematic, particularly for poorer countries
that have under-invested in both water resource infrastructure
and in water management systems and institutions. Numerous
circumstances lead to water scarcity: the changing nature of
supply; rising demand due to population growth and develop
ment; degradation of catchments and recharge areas; aquatic
ecosystem preservation; and the effects of increasing pollution
and climate change, among others. Under-investment in
water resources development exacerbates these problems and
increases countries’ vulnerability to social and economic
shocks from climate variability such as droughts and floods.
Many of the world’s major bodies of water—rivers, lakes,
wetlands, and aquifers—are trans-boundary; that is, they
straddle national borders. While few international wars have
been fought specifically over control of these water resources,
water has been the cause of numerous local-level conflicts.
Such conflicts are characterized by an absence of established
and enforced rules concerning access to and/or protection of
water resources, as well as a lack of representation for some
parties in water-related decisions.
As water becomes increasingly scarce, there is a very real prospect of tensions over trans-boundary
waters leading to a conflict on a wider
scale, plunging states into water wars.
However, cooperative, environmentally
and socially responsible developments
also provide a means of defusing these
tensions. While the potential for conflict
over water resources should not be
underestimated, regional cooperative
mechanisms have become increasingly
popular as a way of acheiving sustainable
resource management across borders and
point toward economic and social
growth.
Rising Water Demand. Freshwater
resources are vital for development. Water
supports economic activities, including
irrigated agriculture, transportation,
hydroelectric power, and numerous
industries. Water is crucial for the sanitation
and health of populations. Wetlands,
rivers, and lakes serve important hydrological
and socioeconomic functions by
mitigating floods, supplying irrigation
systems, providing fisheries, and supply
ing water for livestock and wildlife. In
many parts of the world, natural bodies of
water also have a special spiritual or religious
significance in society.
Demand for water is growing rapidly.
Per capita available water (runoff and
groundwater recharge combined) was an
estimated 30,000 m3 in 1900.1 By 2000
the figure shrank to 7,000 m3 due to
population growth, and is projected to
drop to 5,100 m3 by 2025.
Household water consumption tends
to increase with rising standards of living.
In the United States, for example, indi
viduals typically use between 400 and
700 liters each day for domestic uses,
compared to an average of 30 to 50 liters
per head used in Senegal. As standards of
living rise, especially in high-population
countries such as India and China, per
capita household water use can be expect
ed to rise significantly.
Similarly, the demand for industrial,
hydropower, and irrigation water also
rises with increasing affluence.
Worldwide, water used for irrigation
accounts for about 70 percent of all water
demand. The UN Food and Agricultural
Organization (FAO) predicts that
demand for irrigation water will grow by
14 percent to 2,420 km3 by 2030.2
Industrial water demand is expected to
rise at a rate faster than population growth
if industrial development proceeds at
current rates in countries such as Brazil,
China, and India. As a result, the per
capita availability of water will drop even
more rapidly than projections indicate.
As demand for water increases, reliable
access to water supplies also grows
more uncertain. The easily exploited and
cheapest sources of water have already
been tapped to the point where humans
use more than half of the world’s readily
accessible freshwater.3 If present rates of
use continue, humans will use 90 per
cent of these freshwater supplies by 2025
and the already high average cost of
retrieving sufficient water resources will
undoubtedly increase.